By Michael Kugelman
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief.
The highlights this week: The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party pulls off an electoral upset but gets left out of government, protesting Indian farmers clash with police as they march toward New Delhi, and UNICEF warns of a humanitarian crisis in Nepal 100 days after a deadly earthquake.
South Asia Brief will take a break next week and return to your inbox on Wednesday, Feb. 28. Have feedback? Hit reply to let me know your thoughts.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party supporters block a highway with a protest in Peshawar, Pakistan, on Feb. 11. Abdul Majeed/AFP via Getty Images
Electorally speaking, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party was left for dead ahead of the country’s vote last week. The party of former Prime Minister Imran Khan was targeted by a monthslong crackdown that hollowed out its leadership and limited its capacity to mobilize, penalized by court rulings that required it to field candidates as independents, and was on the outs with a powerful military that has long shaped the political environment to serve its interests.
Yet independents backed by PTI won nearly 100 parliamentary seats on Feb. 8—more than any other party but not enough for a majority. (It could have been even more: The party has produced evidence indicating that many official results contradict earlier figures from polling stations.) But this stunning electoral success won’t catapult PTI to power. On Tuesday, its main rivals announced they had reached a deal to form the next coalition government.
Nonetheless, PTI seems to have broken the military’s stranglehold on political control, giving cause for some optimism about the future of Pakistan’s democracy. A few factors drove PTI’s performance, but one was defiance—an unwillingness to let the powerful military dictate the outcome of an election that it wanted PTI to lose.
A shift in the military’s approach likely fanned the flames. Pakistan has been under formal civilian rule since 2008, and the military has largely maintained a strong but subtle influence over politics. But in recent months, it seemed to assert its control more overtly; the crackdown against PTI was especially far-reaching and brutal. The army has embraced more visible roles in policy, including on economic recovery. The PTI base had strong motivation to vote and wasn’t deterred by obstacles, such as a nationwide suspension of mobile service on election day.
PTI also ran a campaign that evaded the state’s dragnet and courted younger voters. The party relied on digital technologies embraced by young Pakistanis, who comprise some 60 percent of the country’s population and a large portion of PTI’s base. (Around 30 percent of Pakistanis are active social media users, and that figure has increased in recent years.) The party even resorted to the use of artificial intelligence to produce speeches by the imprisoned Khan and get around restrictions on public rallies.
Finally, PTI exploited old-fashioned political advantages. Its main rivals, the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP), led the previous coalition and angered the public by failing to ease worsening economic stress that has produced severe inflation. PTI also banked on the strong appeal of its leader, Khan—a charismatic figure who inspired people to vote from his prison cell. The harsh crackdown on his party vindicated Khan’s longtime victimization narrative, further galvanizing his base.
Despite putting the military on the defensive, PTI’s goal of taking power will fall short. The PML-N and the PPP, which took the second- and third-highest number of seats, respectively, seem set to lead the next coalition. Backing from the military helps their cause, and PTI’s confrontational approach to politics has alienated many parties. One victorious PTI-sponsored independent has already aligned with the PML-N; this week, PTI itself ruled out sharing power with the PML-N and PPP.
In the end, Pakistan’s military may get what it wanted all along: a weak and pliable coalition led by its preferred parties. But it may prove to be a Pyrrhic victory. Allegations of military-sponsored vote rigging will intensify anti-establishment sentiment, increasing societal divisions. Above all, PTI’s feat has crystallized voters’ capacity to overcome the military’s influence on politics and could embolden those calling for the military to take a back seat.
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Protesting farmers clash with police. Thousands of protesting Indian farmers crossed through the state of Haryana this week as they sought to reach New Delhi, clashing with police on the way. The farmers, most of whom are from the state of Punjab, are protesting the government’s refusal to set minimum prices for their products. On Tuesday, police fired tear gas at farmers near Ambala, a city around 125 miles from New Delhi, and at the Punjab-Haryana border. Some protesters retaliated by throwing stones.
Such clashes are not new. In 2020 and 2021, farmers from the same states converged on New Delhi, leading to an extended protest movement. In a rare case of Modi walking back a major policy initiative, India caved to the farmers’ demands, repealing laws meant to liberalize agricultural markets. The move revealed Indian farmers’ political clout, which also helps explain why cabinet-level ministers traveled to Punjab to meet with protest leaders last week in a failed effort to strike a deal.
There is another sensitive issue at play with the protests. Many of the farmers are Sikhs; in 2021, India accused the protests of being tied to separatists who advocate for an independent Sikh state, with little evidence.
Qatar releases former Indian sailors. India’s External Affairs Ministry announced on Monday that Qatar released eight former Indian naval officers from its custody and that all but one have returned to India. The former sailors, who were reportedly serving as consultants to Qatar, were arrested in 2022 and sentenced to death on unspecified charges, although reports indicated they were accused of spying for Israel. Last December, India said their death sentences had been commuted, paving the way for their repatriation.
The officers’ fate was a sensitive issue. The two countries are close partners, and India relies heavily on liquified natural gas imports from Qatar. Neither government has provided much information about the Indians’ release. Many Indians have attributed it to effective diplomacy and the good offices of Indian Prime Minster Narendra Modi, who met with Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani on the sidelines of the U.N. climate summit in Dubai last year.
Geopolitical and commercial factors may also be at play. As Houthi rebel attacks in the Red Sea have increased in recent weeks, India’s navy has been active in assisting ships in distress; New Delhi may have reminded Doha of its role as a net security provider in the area. India may have also used a pending renewal of a major natural gas deal as leverage; the deal was finalized last week.
UNICEF warns of crisis in Nepal. Last Sunday, 100 days after Nepal was hit by an earthquake that killed at least 154 people, UNICEF warned of the continued need for humanitarian aid for about 200,000 people in the country, including nearly 70,000 children and their families. The agency, which is appealing for $14.7 million in support, said that many of the earthquake survivors have had to spend the winter in temporary shelters.
UNICEF’s plea for assistance is a sobering reminder of the humanitarian emergencies facing South Asia, which have been overlooked amid so many other crises around the world. In addition to Nepal’s recent earthquake, Pakistan is still grappling with the impacts of widespread flooding in 2022, and Afghanistan is suffering a severe drought. Both countries are reeling from the crisis triggered by Islamabad’s decision last November to expel hundreds of thousands of undocumented immigrants, most of them Afghan refugees.
Mohamed Muizzu, the president of the Maldives, has recently taken heat for his “India Out” policy, which calls for the expulsion of all Indian military personnel in the country by March 15. Last month, opposition lawmakers blamed Muizzu for the death of a boy while he awaited a medical airlift amid reports that the government was not allowing Indian military helicopters to be used for such assistance. In an earlier incident, three of Muizzu’s junior ministers insulted Modi on social media and sparked a feud with calls in India to boycott tourism in the Maldives.
Opposition lawmakers have even threatened to impeach Muizzu for his anti-India position. None of this is good news for Muizzu, who only took office last November. However, the president and his People’s National Congress party may have received a well-timed reprieve. Parliamentary elections were originally scheduled for March 17; on Sunday, the Maldives parliament—controlled by Muizzu’s rival party—passed a bill stipulating that elections can’t be held during Ramadan. March 17 falls during the first week of Ramadan.
Parliamentarians had expressed concerns that holding polls on that date would result in low turnout. A new election date hasn’t been set, but some reports suggest it will be 10 days after the end of Ramadan, or around April 19. This means Muizzu will get an additional month to put more distance between recent controversies and the polls.
In the Kathmandu Post, scholar Roshee Lamichhane argues that Nepal needs better road infrastructure to strengthen tourism: “Although good road infrastructure usually improves the overall tourist experience worldwide, Nepal faces challenges due to its inadequate road conditions, which prevent it from fully realizing its potential as a desirable tourist destination.”
Researcher Rakshith Shetty writes for South Asian Voices about the significance of recent India-Maldives tensions. “The current situation puts the diplomatic and political relationship between India and the Maldives at stake, which has been meticulously cultivated over six decades,” he writes.
A Daily Star editorial decries the poor condition of Dhaka’s canals. “A key challenge in this regard is the lack of specific authorities for many canals and the prevalence of collusion among land grabbers, responsible officials, and politicians that often enable encroachment,” it argues. “We must break this cycle.”
Michael Kugelman is the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.