Beijing now holds the upper hand in negotiations.
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Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrive for bilateral talks at the Munich Security Conference in Munich on on Feb. 15. Sean Gallup/Getty Images

As Beijing prepares to host a high-level summit with the European Union on Thursday, the message from Chinese officials seems to be “No more Mr. Nice Guy.”

In the first days of U.S. President Donald Trump’s second term, China appeared to be probing opportunities to build a united front with Europe. But as the EU faces a rising economic burden from Trump’s tariffs and a demand for increased defense spending, Chinese officials have identified a shift in the power dynamic. They have recently accused Europe of protectionism, demanded fewer trade restrictions, and deepened China’s strategic partnership with Russia.

Both China and the EU still need each other, though. At this week’s summit, Europe may look for China to pick up the pace on the export of rare-earth minerals—a powerful hand for Beijing in trade negotiations around the world, as FP’s Christina Lu reports. And with the United States shrinking from global trade, China will need the European market for its glut of solar panels, electric vehicles, and steel.

In the long term, though, how should European leaders think about responding to China’s more aggressive bargaining position? Not by staying out of Asia, as some European officials told FP’s Matthew Kroenig that they were asked to do by Washington.

The United States needs Europe to counter China, Kroenig argues. And while Washington could enforce perfect export controls to prevent Chinese theft of U.S. technology, “if Beijing just turns around and buys advanced tech from Europe, then the strategy will not work.”—Amelia Lester, deputy editor

 

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On Our Radar

  • Ishiba rebuked. Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party lost ground in Sunday’s parliamentary elections, which were seen as a referendum on Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba. Ishiba has struggled to negotiate China’s hegemonic ambitions and Trump’s hard line on trade, and Christian Caryl writes, “[I]t’s quite possible to imagine the country [Japan] passing into a prolonged crisis of governability.”
  • Protests in Bangladesh. Hundreds of thousands of supporters of Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party rallied in the capital of Dhaka on Saturday. Bangladeshis of all stripes coalesced around Nobel laureate Mohammed Yunus as interim leader last year. But, FP’s Sumit Ganguly writes, “Yunus seems either unwilling or incapable of reining in the Islamist zealots who are increasingly coming to the fore.”
  • Eastern Congo peace deal. After reaching a peace agreement facilitated by the United States in June, the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Rwanda-backed rebels signed a declaration of principles to end decades of fighting on Saturday. Questions remain: Will the March 23 Movement respect the agreement? And when will the international community recognize Rwanda’s “cavalier meddling” in the conflict—as Milain Fayulu and Jeffrey Smith argue must happen for a lasting peace?
 

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Exercise Your Mind

Cristosal, a leading human rights organization, announced on Thursday that it is leaving its country of origin due to mounting government harassment. Where is it currently based?

  1. Venezuela
  2. Cuba
  3. Nicaragua
  4. El Salvador

You can find the answer to this question at the end of this email. Test your knowledge with more quiz questions.

 

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Answer: D. Since he took office in 2019, Salvadoran President Nayib Bukele has destroyed democratic checks and balances and eroded due process, Oliver Stuenkel wrote last month.

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