Iran Launches Retaliatory Attacks Against Israel

In its first-ever direct attack on Israel, Iran launched hundreds of suicide attack drones as well as cruise and ballistic missiles toward the country on Saturday in response to an Israeli strike on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Damascus on April 1.

With Israel’s war with Hamas showing no signs of abetting, the strikes marked another major moment of turbulence in the Middle East that threatens to tip the region into a wider conflict. Iran’s decision to retaliate against Israel from its own soil raised eyebrows among experts, even as the attacks appeared to be carefully calibrated to avoid a full-scale war.

“This is very significant, as Iran has avoided directly attacking Israel, normally choosing to use proxy forces to ostensibly shield them directly from retaliation,” said Michael Mulroy, a former U.S. defense official.

Sirens blared throughout Israel during the early morning hours of Sunday in Negev, Dimona, and Jerusalem, and interceptions extended all the way to the Tel Aviv suburbs, while Israeli fighter jets conducted patrols over Tel Aviv and other major cities.

A hurriedly formed coalition of U.S., British, and other regional militaries, including Jordan’s, aided Israel in blunting the attack and successfully downing many of the first wave of Iranian drones and missiles before they reached Israeli airspace, two U.S. officials told Foreign Policy.

The drones Iran chose to launch at Israel included slower-moving ones designed for tactical use, these officials said—another indication that Tehran likely tamped down its response to avoid further escalation.

As of early Sunday morning, the only reported casualty in the Iranian attack appeared to be a 10-year-old Bedouin Arab girl wounded by falling shrapnel in the Negev desert. The child was hospitalized due to her injuries.

Israel Defense Forces Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari said Israel’s long-range Arrow air defense systems intercepted most of Iran’s missiles outside Israeli airspace, though the weapons caused damage to infrastructure at one military base. Iran launched more than 200 projectiles at Israel by Hagari’s count.

The White House condemned the attack and said U.S. support for Israel remained “ironclad.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke by phone with U.S. President Joe Biden on Saturday evening Washington time to update him on the attack. British Defense Secretary Grant Shapps announced that the United Kingdom would deploy more Royal Air Force assets to the region under its existing counter-Islamic State operations in Iraq and Syria and that these jets would “intercept any airborne attacks within range of our existing missions, as required.”

This attack is the largest by Iran in the region since the 2019 drone strikes on Saudi oil refineries and the 2020 strikes against Iraqi air bases hosting U.S. troops in response to the U.S. drone strike killing of Qassem Suleimani, who led Iran’s elite Quds Force.

But Iran also appeared to telegraph the attack on Israel long in advance, giving the Israelis and their allies plenty of time to prepare their air defenses, a move that some regional experts and U.S. officials interpreted as a calculated effort to reduce the risk of further escalation. In the hours before the strikes, both Jordan and Israel shut down their airspace to commercial traffic, while U.S. tankers refueled U.S. fighter jets lining the skies over Iraq.

“It does seem like it was telegraphed,” Mulroy said. “Perhaps to allow them to be shot down.”

Matt Duss, a former advisor to U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders and now the executive vice president of the Center for International Policy, a Washington-based think tank, saw the moves as an Iranian effort to restore deterrence but said he hoped for a restrained effort. “Basically everyone is hoping that the Iranian government acts with more rationality and restraint than the Israeli government, is where we’re at right now,” he posted on X, formerly Twitter.

Other prominent Democrats said the strikes on Israel should ramp up pressure on House Republicans to finally pass a long-delayed national security funding bill—the source of heated political debates for months—that includes billions of dollars in defense aid for Israel, as well as Ukraine. “The House should promptly pass this coming week the long delayed national security supplemental to ensure that our Israeli allies have everything they need to defend themselves from attacks by Iran and its proxies,” said Democratic Sen. Chris Coons, a key political ally of Biden on Capitol Hill.

And indeed, House Majority Leader Steve Scalise issued a statement Saturday saying, “In light of Iran’s unjustified attack on Israel, the House will move from its previously announced legislative schedule next week to instead consider legislation that supports our ally Israel and holds Iran and its terrorist proxies accountable.”

Biden, who returned early from a trip to Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, on Saturday for an emergency National Security Council meeting, was briefed on potential U.S. options by Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.

“The severity and success of this strike will likely be determinative of whether this escalates to a regional conflict,” Mulroy said. “One that could include the United States.”

Still, Israel’s response is still hinging on ongoing damage assessments from the attack. If the Iranians cause serious damage, “the Israelis will feel compelled to establish deterrence offensively,” said David Des Roches, an associate professor at the National Defense University’s Near East South Asia Center for Security Studies and a retired U.S. Army colonel. “And if that happens, we may see a ratcheting series of attacks, which can get out of control quickly.”

Des Roches said the next steps for the U.S. Defense Department would likely include resupplying Israel’s air defense missiles, boosting intelligence-sharing, and potentially supporting Israel with electronic warfare capabilities.