Brazil’s Capitol Riot Shows the Strength of Bolsonarism After Bolsonaro

On Sunday, one of the most highly predicted events in recent Brazilian political history finally came to pass. In a display eerily reminiscent of the U.S. Capitol insurrection on Jan. 6, 2021, Brazilians unhappy with the results of last year’s presidential election stormed and ransacked the seat of government in Brasília. Thousands of people vandalized the National Congress, Supreme Federal Court, and presidential palace before police cleared them away after about two hours. The mob physically attacked at least eight journalists and one police officer.

The rioters were supporters of far-right former President Jair Bolsonaro, who lost the Oct. 30, 2022, presidential runoff to left-wing Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro, an ally of former U.S. President Donald Trump, had spent months preceding the contest spreading false claims that Brazil’s electronic voting system had a history of fraud. After his loss was confirmed, Bolsonaro never explicitly conceded to Lula, instead praising protesters who claimed Lula had stolen the election.

Demonstrations first involved truckers blockading highways across the country; once police dismantled the blockades, protesters moved to camp out in front of their local army barracks, where many called for the military to intervene to reverse the election results. Sunday’s attack in Brasília began as a march from the city’s army barracks to the seat of government.

Bolsonaro, who has made few public statements since the election, traveled to Florida rather than attend Lula’s Jan. 1 inauguration. Bolsonaro is popular among Brazilians in the state, a haven for conservative Latin American expatriates. The ousted president tweeted several hours after the break-in to criticize the invasion of public buildings and destruction of property, but he did not denounce the spirit of the demonstration. Protesters punctured famous paintings, stole guns normally used for palace security, and smashed windows and computers. Lula called the violence undemocratic and unprecedented in the nation’s history, and he vowed to investigate the perpetrators. He decreed the federal government would take over security operations of the district of Brasília until Jan. 31.

The parallels with events in the United States go beyond coincidence: Bolsonaro and his top advisors have met repeatedly with Trump and his cohort over the years, even after the former U.S. president left office. The Brazilian far-right leader has emphasized his links to evangelical churches, pro-gun movements, and the U.S.-founded Conservative Political Action Conference. The Washington Post reported in November 2022 that one such meeting between the Trump and Bolsonaro camps followed last October’s Brazilian election. Bolsonaro’s son Eduardo, a congressman, reportedly met with Trump and his aide Jason Miller in Florida and spoke with Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon by phone to “discuss next steps.” Eduardo was in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021.

As a result, it had long been forecasted that Bolsonaro’s supporters might seek to execute some version of Jan. 6 in Brasília. What had been less clear was when and how such an event would play out—and what impact it might have on Lula’s transition.

Read More

Bolsonaro Is Learning All the Wrong Lessons From Jan. 6

The Trump-dominated GOP models how a violent effort to overturn an election—even if unsuccessful—can become a political asset.

Argument

|

Oliver Stuenkel

How Bolsonaro Changed the Brazilian Right

Sunday’s election cemented the far-right president’s dominance of a formerly moderate camp.

Latin America Brief

|

Catherine Osborn

Now we know. The attack failed to block Lula from taking office, but it was still threatening in what it revealed about the muscle—and reach—of Brazil’s far right.

In part thanks to court orders that sought to disband pro-Bolsonaro protests immediately following the election, Brazil’s capitol riot came only after Lula had already been inaugurated. Furthermore, Brazil’s military did not heed the pro-Bolsonaro camp’s repeated calls for an outright coup.

Still, demonstrators were able to penetrate far into government buildings on Sunday—indicating at least a tacit alignment between rioters and some security forces. Both the Brasília police force and a special army unit tasked with protecting the seat of government should have stopped the crowd from invading. Social media videos have also documented that security forces only put up mild resistance. The governor of Brasília was a Bolsonaro ally and had installed Bolsonaro’s former minister of justice as the federal police chief.

Sunday’s invasion was coordinated enough that it cannot have been the product of grassroot demonstrations alone. There also seems to be a sophisticated network behind the mobilization and financing of right-wing extremism in Brazil, even as its key figurehead remains in self-imposed exile.

Fact-checking organization Agência Lupa reported that messages promising demonstrators free bus rides to the capital circulated among groups of Bolsonaro supporters on Telegram; dozens of buses had arrived in recent days. Bolsonaro’s years of attacking the mainstream media and his emphasis on cultivating social media communities have embedded his enthusiastic supporters in online channels, where actors hoping to stimulate extremism and political violence can quickly boost their messaging across the country. (Bannon, for his part, called Brazil’s insurrectionists “freedom fighters” on right-wing social media platform Gettr.)

Most of Lula’s ministers have voiced support for a no-tolerance approach to insurrectionists, and Brazil’s justice minister said authorities had arrested around 1,500 people in relation to the attack by Monday. A Supreme Federal Court order also temporarily stripped the governor of Brasília of his position while security failures related to the attack are investigated.

Lula blamed Bolsonaro for instigating the attack, a claim that Bolsonaro denied. On Monday, CNN Brasil reported that a center-left political party had petitioned Brazil’s attorney general to charge him with inciting a crime and force him to return to Brazil from Florida. Bolsonaro is also linked to several other ongoing investigations, including one for attacks on the country’s electoral system.

Pro-Bolsonaro Brazilian lawmakers have already said they believe Sunday and Monday’s detentions are excessive. If Lula’s administration is not careful about clearly establishing and proving which crimes may have been committed in the attack, then they could give the far right more fuel to grow their ranks.

In its immediate aftermath, however, the attack appeared highly unpopular with the Brazilian public: Pollster Quaest found that a random sample of social media posts about the event were 90 percent negative. And with the amount of social media footage gathered Sunday, authorities will have no shortage of evidence to prosecute political violence.