Foreign minister Jaishankar’s parleys with the Iranian leadership yesterday indicate a willingness to revive Indian interests in the Islamic republic. That Jaishankar began his trip by meeting the Iranian roads and urban development minister – where discussions revolved around Chabahar port and the International North-South Transport Corridor – shows that the focus is back on infrastructure cooperation. However, coming against the backdrop of Houthi disruptions to Red Sea shipping, New Delhi-Tehran ties have already entered tricky waters.

Lost ground | Bilateral ties nosedived after India reduced Iranian oil imports to zero following US pulling out of the Iran nuclear deal and reimposing full raft of sanctions against Tehran. This even impacted Chabahar although the project was exempt from sanctions. At one point India couldn’t find ship-to-shore crane suppliers for the strategic port.

China’s expanding presence | Meanwhile, China ramped up its ties with Iran by inking a 25-year comprehensive cooperation agreement. Beijing has also been buying Iranian oil despite US sanctions. This new synergy between Beijing and Tehran creates substantial obstacles for New Delhi-Tehran ties.

Afghan recalibration | Add to this the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan that left India in a tight spot. New Delhi had banked on a modus vivendi between Washington and Tehran to protect its Afghan strategic interests. But with the termination of the Iran nuclear deal and US hightailing from Afghanistan, India’s plans were quashed.

Arab-Israeli orbit | Simultaneously, India’s ties with Gulf Arab nations have dramatically improved. And with some Arab nations normalising relations with Israel – a key Indian partner – this trend has strengthened. Platforms like I2U2 (India, Israel, US and UAE) further align New Delhi’s interests with Sunni Arab West Asia.

Navigating fault lines | India, therefore, is caught between Iran’s ‘Axis of Resistance’ on one hand and the US-Israel-Arab partnership on the other hand. And despite the China-mediated Saudi-Iran deal last year, the war in Gaza and the situation with Houthis show the two West Asia rivals remain far apart.

Converging interests | But given the modernisation drive in Gulf Arab states, Israel’s economy and growing India-US strategic partnership, New Delhi’s interests lie here. Iran won’t get off sanctions soon and is locked in partnership with China and Russia. While it helps New Delhi to not completely burn bridges with Tehran – Tehran needs New Delhi to balance Beijing – the two countries will remain on divergent paths in the near future.

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This piece appeared as an editorial opinion in the print edition of The Times of India.

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