Russia Leaves Black Sea Grain Deal

Welcome back to World Brief, where we’re looking at a future without the Black Sea Grain Initiative, new European investment promises to Latin America, and Israel’s second judicial reform vote.

Russian President Vladimir Putin left the Black Sea Grain Initiative on Monday in a blow to global food security concerns amid Russia’s war in Ukraine. The agreement, which was brokered last July by the United Nations and Turkey, was established to help alleviate global food supply concerns by ensuring both Russia and Ukraine could safely ship grain through the Black Sea; more than a quarter of the world’s wheat comes from these two nations. The deal was set to expire on Monday, but top negotiators expected the Kremlin to follow precedent and extend the contract another 60 days. Instead, Moscow said it would only consider rejoining the deal if “concrete results” to better protect Russian goods were enacted.

The Kremlin’s dramatic about-face came mere hours after a strike on the Crimean Bridge killed two Russian civilians. Moscow pointed fingers at Ukrainian domestic security services, with allegations that Ukrainian sea drones destroyed the key road. The bridge is a vital thoroughfare between Russia and Crimea, and its destruction will not only impact Moscow’s ability to send troops into southern Ukraine but also reveal Russia’s vulnerability to Ukrainian seaborne weapons. Ukraine has refused to comment on its alleged responsibility for the strike, but Russian officials are calling it a terrorist attack.

Russia denied that the bridge strike impacted its decision to withdraw from the Black Sea grain deal and argued that the agreement has failed to free up Russian food and fertilizer supplies. Yet the timing is suggestive. “Russia’s claim that it’s suffering under this initiative is just absurd,” Caitlin Welsh, the director of global food security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told FP’s Christina Lu. “It’s continuing to play victim in a crisis of its own creation.”

With the deal kaput, the Black Sea’s northwestern region will be declared a temporary danger to shipping by the Kremlin. Insurers are already discussing removing contracts that cover ships willing to sail to Ukraine, and food inflation rates are expected to rise. “Rations are being cut to children every day now across the world,” Jan Egeland, the secretary-general of the Norwegian Refugee Council, told Reuters. “It is utterly dramatic, and this [deal] was one of the few glimmers of hope in this age of biblical starvation.”

But optimism for the deal’s return persists. Last week, Turkey vowed to continue the grain deal with Ukraine by having the Turkish navy help ensure safe shipping corridors, the Azeri Times reported. How much Turkey can legitimately do is unclear, though, because ships will still require commercial insurers to protect them. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also said he believes Putin wishes to continue the deal, adding that the two leaders will discuss how to transport Russian goods when they meet in person next month. Meanwhile, European Union solidarity lanes will continue to export Ukrainian produce, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen tweeted.

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Tuesday, July 18: U.S. President Joe Biden hosts talks with Israeli President Isaac Herzog.

Wednesday, July 19: Anti-government activists stage protests in Peru.

U.S. climate envoy John Kerry concludes his four-day visit to China.

Thursday, July 20: Turkey’s and South Africa’s central banks decide whether to alter their interest rates.

Friday, July 21: India hosts meetings for G-20 labor and employment ministers.

Saturday, July 22: India hosts meetings for G-20 energy ministers.

Sunday, July 23: Cambodia and Spain hold parliamentary elections.

Monday, July 24: Philippine President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. delivers his annual State of the Nation Address.

The fight over Latin America. More than 50 European, Latin American, and Caribbean leaders gathered in Brussels on Monday in the first cross-regional summit in eight years. The two-day meeting is centered on enhancing diplomatic relations to counter Russian and Chinese aggression, specifically by establishing trade deals for critical minerals such as lithium and copper. For Day One, the European Union pledged to invest $50.6 billion in Latin America and the Caribbean as part of its Global Gateway, the West’s infrastructure rival to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. The EU also said it was nearing a finalized agreement with the Mercosur bloc to open new trading opportunities and tackle deforestation.

Last month, von der Leyen acknowledged that Europe has neglected the region in the past but promised to reengage, starting with this week’s summit. However, not every nation is thrilled to jump on the EU’s train. Numerous Latin American nations have repeatedly sided with or refused to criticize countries such as Russia and China due to strong trading or security ties with them. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has signaled that he wants closer ties with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Honduras scrapped its recognition of Taiwan in March in favor of Chinese diplomatic relations, and Nicaragua voted to condemn a U.N. resolution in February criticizing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Israel’s round-two vote. Israel’s Knesset held a second hearing on Monday for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s efforts to end the country’s reasonableness standard as part of his controversial judicial reform proposal. Abolishing the standard would limit judicial oversight of government decisions. The country’s parliament must hold three hearings before a bill can become law. A final vote is scheduled for early next week.

Mass protests against Netanyahu’s judicial reform plan are expected on Tuesday as part of the nation’s larger “day of disruption.” Netanyahu’s “effort to weaken Israel’s democracy, if not redefine the country’s character, and the public’s stunning resistance have taken Israel to a place it’s never been before,” Middle East experts Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer argued in Foreign Policy in March.

A debilitating blow for Singapore. Back-to-back scandals have left Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) in crisis. Already reeling from investigations into two cabinet ministers’ real estate finances in May, the PAP suffered another shock when Parliament Speaker Tan Chuan-Jin issued his surprise resignation on Monday for inappropriate behavior, including using “unparliamentary language” and having an extramarital relationship with a fellow lawmaker, who also resigned.

“It is painful to do this to our friends and comrades-in-arms, and it can also be politically embarrassing and costly,” Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong said on Monday. “But the PAP has to maintain party discipline and standard of conduct.”

Around 20 cyclists lost control of their bikes on Sunday after a spectator of the Tour de France’s Stage 15 caused a pileup. According to U.S. cyclist Sepp Kuss, an individual trying to take a selfie in the road clipped his handlebars, causing several top competitors to crash, including 2019’s winner, Egan Bernal. The Tour’s best advice: “Please pay attention to the riders.”