The Islamic State Has a New Target: Russia

Now that the United States has left Afghanistan, the local branch of the Islamic State has turned its sights on a new enemy: Russia. Shortly after the Russian invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022, the Islamic State’s central propaganda apparatus initiated a Ukraine-focused media campaign in its weekly al-Naba newsletter under the headline “Crusader Against Crusader Wars,” in which the group reveled in the mutual destruction of its declared adversaries on the European continent.

“This bloody war taking place today, between the Orthodox crusaders—Russia and Ukraine—is an example of the punishment that was unleashed upon them and is forever glued to them.” The conflict, the article argues, is about power and “a manifestation of the escalating competition between America and Russia for control of the Eastern European countries.” The Islamic State says the “crusader against crusader wars” are just beginning, and the article concludes with an appeal: “O Allah, make their wars bloody and plant discord in their hearts; pour your wrath and torment upon them.”

Following the al-Naba item, the Islamic State’s central propaganda outlets moved on to other issues; however, pro-Islamic State media groups continued the discourse and carried on producing their own content. During the summer of 2022, the group’s Afghanistan branch, known as the Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K)—named after a historical region that encompassed northeastern Iran, southern Turkmenistan, and northern Afghanistan—emerged as the leading voice on the Russia-Ukraine war and began spearheading the campaign to capitalize on the conflict that dominates daily global news headlines.

Russia is a familiar enemy for Sunni jihadists and has found itself in the crosshairs of IS-K for several reasons. According to IS-K, Moscow’s hands are covered in Muslim blood, especially in Afghanistan, where the legacy of the decade-long Soviet-Afghan War still looms large. IS-K narratives frequently point to Russia’s historical entanglement in Afghanistan and current relations with the Taliban, highlighting Moscow’s lobbying of the Taliban to gain access to Afghanistan, while in return, the Taliban hopes to acquire international recognition and support.

Further, the Russian military’s brutal tactics in multiple Chechen wars and its scorched-earth counterinsurgency campaign in the Caucasus mean that there is no love lost for Russia. The Kremlin’s continued assistance to notorious dictator Bashar al-Assad in Syria, where Russian air support targeted Sunni strongholds during the long-running civil war, cements Russia’s image as a worthwhile enemy to focus on. Taken together, these factors make Russia an attractive target for IS-K propaganda.

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IS-K’s al-Azaim Foundation for Media Production is an innovative and savvy organization that has increasingly leveraged geopolitical issues to advance its agenda. For IS-K, ground operations in the “Khorasan” region and information warfare complement each other; as such, the purpose of al-Azaim’s media offensive is to stir Muslims’ anger over sociopolitical and economic grievances toward the governments in their countries in order to attract supporters. IS-K also seeks to gin up anti-Russian sentiment due to Moscow’s past war in Afghanistan and its current support for the Syrian regime, appealing to Muslims who see Russia as a longtime menace to Islam.

The first IS-K message mentioning Ukraine was published by the group on March 10, 2022, just two weeks after the conflict kicked off. The statement, issued in the wake of a devastating attack carried out by the group against a Shiite shrine in Peshawar, Pakistan, briefly mentioned the war in Ukraine in the last section of the text. But the mention was an important one, warning Muslims fighting on both sides that participating in the conflict does not equate to participating in jihad. This way, IS-K aims at delegitimizing other jihadist organizations’ struggles as un-Islamic, thus sanctioning only its own war for those who consider themselves true believers.

On Aug. 3, 2022, IS-K published an issue of its flagship English language Voice of Khurasan magazine featuring an article titled “The Black Hole in Ukraine,” which celebrated the war as “a great, tremendous glad tiding for the Muslims worldwide.” The “war erupting among the kuffar [nonbelievers]” is, in IS-K’s view, a “great sign from Allah the Almighty.” Speaking on the two great powers, the United States and Russia, fighting a proxy war, IS-K asserted, “America has been a furious enemy of Islam throughout the last century, and Russia has proven no different.”

The unnamed author noted how this time, “the victims were not the Muslims of Chechnya, nor Afghanistan nor Syria,” but instead the residents of the “peaceful lands of Europe.” The group boasted that these “crusader governments waging their war on terror against Islam, have seen a clear glimpse of war right in their own homes.” Notably, the article quotes the late Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi’s past words as prophetically manifesting when he said, “We promise you—by the grace of Allah—that everyone who participates in this war against the Islamic State will surely pay dearly and will regret it.” The decision to quote Baghdadi, the first Islamic State caliph, is intended to afford further legitimacy to the statement and convey a sense of urgency to those listening.

Another early original piece IS-K published dedicated to the war in Ukraine was released on Aug. 14, 2022, by IS-K’s Farsi-language channel al-Fursan Media. It urged Muslims to be patient and wait for an opportunity to strike their enemies, including Russia, by taking advantage of the ongoing turmoil. Then, in October 2022, al-Azaim Foundation featured a short article in Russian titled “The Command on the War in Ukraine.” In a direct address to Muslims fighting for Ukraine and Russia, the statement says that it is forbidden for Muslims to fight for a non-Islamic ruler. It further claims that the war in Ukraine is another scheme devised by the West to create rifts among Muslims, and thus that believers should not get involved and should instead stand back and let the two sides destroy each other.

The most recent piece of propaganda issued by IS-K on the subject was published in issue 24 of Voice of Khurasan on April 2. The article, “A Message from the Heart to our Muslim Brothers in Ukraine,” is allegedly written by an anonymous IS-K supporter living in Europe. The text addresses Muslims fighting on both sides of the conflict in Ukraine—specifically, Chechen Muslims on the Russian side and Tatar Muslims on the Ukrainian one—and urges them to abstain from fighting, join the Islamic State, and redirect their armed struggle toward Russian troops in Syria. The article also takes aim at current Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, whom the author describes as “vulgar” and a “hypocrite,” accusing him of being a tool of Russian President Vladimir Putin for his role in sending Chechen troops to fight in Ukraine.

The author recalled Baghdadi’s creation of the “Caucasus Wilayah”—a franchise group of the Islamic State that covered territory throughout the North Caucasus—which was meant to become a launchpad for attacks inside Russia and Chechnya as well as in the West. The author suggested that true Muslims should not be fighting in a war between nonbelievers, but instead devoting efforts to reviving the Islamic State’s capability to conduct attacks against Russian forces in Chechnya, Dagestan, and throughout southern Russia. Similarly, the author ridicules the creation of the “Muslim Battalion,” referring to Tatar Muslims fighting in units for Ukraine, and accuses them of collaborating with a “Nazi regime”—echoing a Kremlin talking point and defaming Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Instead, the article argues that if Tatars, Chechens, and Muslims in general want to fight against Russian forces, they should join the Caucasus Wilayah.

The media institute works closely with pro-Islamic State propaganda groups that frequently feature posts on the war in Ukraine. Additionally, IS-K’s al-Azaim Foundation for Media production and supporting outlets publish translations of official Islamic State propaganda, as well as original content in the Russian language, to build support, recruit, fundraise, and incite violence among Russian Muslims.

The media campaign has been accompanied by real-world actions. In September 2022, an IS-K suicide bomber attacked the Russian Embassy in Kabul, killing two employees and four Afghan civilians. Although there have not been any major IS-K operations against Russia or Russian interests in Afghanistan since the embassy attack, the uptick in propaganda demonstrates that the intent remains to go after Russia. There is typically a lag effect to an influx of propaganda and actual terrorist plots and attacks, so further attacks against Russian personnel or Russian targets in Afghanistan or throughout the broader region would come as little surprise.

As Russia, China, Iran, and other countries look to fill the power vacuum in Afghanistan following the U.S. withdrawal, they may increasingly find themselves provoking the ire of IS-K and other jihadist groups. With Russia, IS-K may already smell blood in the water. Moscow’s underwhelming military performance in Ukraine shows just how thinly stretched the Kremlin is on the battlefield. This could encourage historically restive areas on Russia’s periphery to seek opportunities to rejuvenate armed campaigns against Russia, especially in places like Dagestan, Ingushetia, and other parts of the North Caucasus. By instigating jihadists to attack Russia, IS-K is looking to generate momentum, especially at a time when the core Islamic State organization in Syria is reeling from aggressive U.S. counterterrorism efforts.